Potential distribution of Sanionia spp. at two moments of the Holocene in Fildes Peninsula King George Island Antarctica

Abstract

 The first potential distribution model for mosses, Sanionia spp., in Fildes peninsula, South Shetland, Antarctica was generated using the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent) for two Holocene moments. The potential distribution model of Sanionia spp. calibrated for the present time (DPM S. Present) was executed for past periods, 11 ka (DPM S. 11 ka) and 6 ka (DPM S. 6 ka). Knowing that the ecological niche is a set of biotic and abiotic conditions where the species is able to remain stable in population size, abiotic variables, such as topography and temperature were used for the calibration of the DPM S. Present. The topographic variables are elevation, slope and exposure, constructed based on a digital elevation model of the ice-free area of the Fildes peninsula. For the DPM S. 11 ka and DPM S. 6 ka the variables are constructed with the data of the current digital elevation model modified according to the reconstruction of ice sheet position, sea level and temperature anomaly values obtained from the ice core on James Ross island. The model established that the probability of presence in the Fildes peninsula for the current moment is 29.5%, for the moment 6 k the probability of presence is 58.9% and for the moment 11 ka the probability is 69.9%. The probability of presence of Sanionia spp. in Fildes peninsula occurs with temperatures between -2.4°C and -3.0°C, heights below 130 m, slopes below 52% and in south - east, south - west and northwest aspect